AI financing and power constraints remain focal risks; China’s software progress raises competition but no verified cycle break.

The underlying risk picture is broadly unchanged. Project Jupiter’s power-related delay continues to test data-centre financing and contract structures, while investors report greater selectivity toward AI-linked debt. Strong accelerator demand remains a counterweight, but capex still materially exceeds the available cloud-revenue and free-cash-flow evidence. No material China-driven change was reported since the prior briefing; recent DeepSeek-Huawei and Alibaba developments continue to strengthen China’s domestic stack and potential price-performance competition.

• Aggregate hyperscaler capex growth of 72.29% coincides with aggregate free-cash-flow growth of -16.11%, leaving returns sensitive to sustained demand and utilisation.
• AWS and Google Cloud revenue growth of 24.30% remains well below the 64.73% capex growth comparator.
• Oracle’s Project Jupiter force-majeure notice followed power delays; Reuters reported the project is delayed by about a year and that the episode is affecting financing discussions elsewhere.
• Reuters reported that credit investors are demanding greater concessions and reassessing concentration limits for AI-linked issuance as expected hyperscaler borrowing rises sharply next year.<|DELIM_zaimDYt|>

• NVIDIA Data Center revenue grew 117% year over year to $89.00 billion in the latest reported quarter, supporting the view that accelerator demand remains strong.
• Reuters reported that Blue Owl said Project Jupiter’s force-majeure notice did not alter the parties’ financial commitments, so the project-specific delay is not evidence of a cancelled tenant commitment.
• China’s domestic software and chip-stack progress may lower inference costs and accelerate deployment, which could expand token demand even if it compresses some model-provider pricing.
• Huawei reported more than 1,000 deployed industry projects in its AI Foundry ecosystem, although these company-reported figures do not establish their profitability or compute intensity.

• Whether Project Jupiter’s power delay changes funding terms, tenant obligations, construction milestones or lender protections.
• Whether AI-linked debt concessions widen relative to comparable investment-grade issuance as supply increases.
• Whether grid connection delays and equipment lead times translate into broader data-centre schedule deferrals.
• Whether cloud backlogs convert into recognised revenue and free cash flow rather than further contracted capacity alone.<|DELIM_zaimDYt|>