DAILY EVIDENCE RECORD
Briefing archive.
Each page preserves the score, analysis and source links published on that date. Later evidence does not rewrite an earlier briefing.
AI financing and permitting risks persist, while China’s cloud monetisation and domestic stack progress broaden demand and competition.
The authoritative score remains 3.43 (high cycle stress). Recent evidence reinforces financing and infrastructure-execution risk: large projects increasingly rely on long-duration leases, secured debt and supplier support, while state and local permitting constraints can delay capacity. Counter-evidence is that contracted AI capacity is being commissioned and generating colocation revenue. China was a material positive-demand and competitive development today: Alibaba reported accelerating AI-cloud revenue and margins alongside wider use of its domestic stack. This may expand global AI adoption and compute demand, but, by inference, capable lower-cost Chinese supply can also compress model and cloud rents outside China.
High stress persists; China adds monetisation evidence but also cheaper-model and capex pressure.
The authoritative score remains 3.43 (high cycle stress). Recent evidence still shows abundant demand and infrastructure funding, but it also extends financing and power-buildout exposure beyond hyperscaler balance sheets. China is a mixed cycle input today: Alibaba and Baidu reported tangible AI-cloud growth, while Alibaba's sharply higher AI capex and the dashboard's cheap capable Qwen benchmark preserve both cash-flow and model-rent risks.
High cycle stress remains supported: infrastructure commitments and capex are rising faster than cash conversion, although cloud demand remains strong.
Recent Q2 disclosures reinforce the dashboard’s central tension. Amazon and Meta show exceptionally heavy infrastructure spending and pressured free cash flow, while Alphabet reports very strong Cloud growth. Data-centre planning remains unusually important to construction activity. No new evidence reverses the red-regime reading, but demand has not yet broken.